Famed polling expert Nate Silver makes bold claim about 2024 election: ‘Not a toss-up’
SUMMARY
Renowned election analyst Nate Silver predicts that former President Donald Trump has a 65.7% chance of winning the 2024 presidential race against President Biden. Based on his model's simulations, Biden is expected to narrowly lead in the national popular vote by 0.1 percentage points (47.2% to 47.1%), but Silver forecasts Trump to secure 287 electoral votes—just above the 270 needed to win. Silver notes Biden's challenge in crucial battleground states, suggesting a need to win all states he previously swept. Despite these projections, Silver's analysis differs from FiveThirtyEight, which gives Biden a 51% chance of reelection.
