Nate Silver: Trump slightly ahead of Harris heading into Labor Day weekend
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SUMMARY
Pollster Nate Silver’s latest election forecast shows former President Donald Trump slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris as the nation approaches Labor Day weekend. According to Silver's model, Trump currently has a 52.4% chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Harris’s 47.3%. While Harris leads Trump by 3.8 points in the Silver Bulletin’s national polling tracker, her chance of securing the Electoral College has dipped. Silver notes that Harris’s polls might be inflated due to the “convention bounce” after the Democratic National Convention. He anticipates that if Harris maintains her current standing, her numbers may rise again once the bounce effect fades. Recent polls indicate a tight race, with Harris and Trump nearly tied in key battleground states, showing the competitive nature of the 2024 election.
