California's bluest county swings red for the first time in 40 years as two key demographics turn toward Trump
SUMMARY
California experienced a notable shift to the right in the 2024 election, with San Francisco County, one of the state's most reliably Democratic areas, registering a 7-point swing toward Donald Trump compared to 2020. Asian-American voters and less college-educated segments were key to this shift, with areas like Chinatown and the city’s southern and western neighborhoods showing the strongest Republican gains. While Trump’s support in San Francisco rose to 15.3%, Kamala Harris's dropped to 80.8%. This trend reflects a broader shift across major counties statewide, including Los Angeles, San Diego, and Fresno, with Fresno flipping to Trump for the first time in two decades. Data analysis shows that ethnicity, particularly Asian demographic trends, was the most significant predictor of this shift, overshadowing factors like income and poverty rates.
