Renowned election guru Nate Silver reveals latest forecast for presidential election
SUMMARY
Renowned election analyst Nate Silver has called the upcoming presidential race a "pure toss-up," giving former President Donald Trump a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in his latest forecast. Silver’s model indicates Trump has a 51.5% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris stands at 48.1%. He highlighted that swing state polls present a mixed picture, stating, “[New York Times] swing state polls good for Harris but not great. Morning Consult swing state polls good for Trump but not great.” According to Silver, both candidates are effectively tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Silver also referenced a surprising poll from Iowa, where Harris leads Trump 47% to 44%, but noted that this finding "probably won’t matter" for the overall election outcome. He concluded that the election is shaping up to be a true toss-up, emphasizing, “If Trump had ‘momentum’ in October, it has now petered out in November,” as both candidates enter Election Day neck and neck.
